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LMPS vs Bantu — League #962 2026

LMPS
LMPS
FT
1 – 0
Bantu
Bantu
5/18/2024League #962League #962 · Round 30PTC Ground Europa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LMPS27%
×Draw27%
Bantu47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LMPS
1.00
Bantu
1.42

Bantu creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

LMPS
1.00
Bantu
1.83

allows per match

LMPS
1.00
Bantu
1.00

finishing

LMPS+0.00on par
Bantu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LMPS ↓

Bantu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

LMPS or draw
53%
LMPS or Bantu
73%
Draw or Bantu
73%

Winning margin

LMPS wins by 2+
10%
Bantu wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

LMPS 1+ goals
63%
LMPS 2+ goals
26%
LMPS 3+ goals
8%
Bantu 1+ goals
76%
Bantu 2+ goals
41%
Bantu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

LMPS (draw refunded)
36%
Bantu (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LMPS at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bantu away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LMPS attack 1.00 + Bantu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bantu attack 1.83 + LMPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

LMPS scores more
27%
level
27%
Bantu scores more
47%

Bantu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bantu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LMPS 1 – 0 Bantu

LMPS beat Bantu 1-0 in League #962 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at PTC Ground Europa in Maseru.