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LLuja vs Härmä — Suomen Cup 2018

LLuja
LLuja
FT
0 – 4
Härmä
Härmä
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundOP-Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LLuja0%
×Draw1%
Härmä99%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LLuja
0.50
Härmä
6.96

Härmä creates 1292% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

LLuja
0.00
Härmä
5.25

allows per match

LLuja
8.67
Härmä
1.00

finishing

LLuja+0.00on par
Härmä+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LLuja ↓

Härmä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–37%
0–412%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–22%
1–34%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 39% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

LLuja or draw
1%
LLuja or Härmä
99%
Draw or Härmä
100%

Winning margin

LLuja wins by 2+
0%
Härmä wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

LLuja 1+ goals
39%
LLuja 2+ goals
9%
LLuja 3+ goals
1%
Härmä 1+ goals
100%
Härmä 2+ goals
98%
Härmä 3+ goals
93%

Draw no bet

LLuja (draw refunded)
0%
Härmä (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LLuja at home — creates 0.00, concedes 8.67 · 3 matches

Härmä away — creates 5.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LLuja attack 0.00 + Härmä defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Härmä attack 5.25 + LLuja defence 8.67 → ÷2 → 6.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

LLuja scores more
0%
level
1%
Härmä scores more
99%

Härmä at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "Härmä will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LLuja 0 – 4 Härmä

Härmä beat LLuja 4-0 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at OP-Areena TN in Eura.