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Llosetense vs Portmany — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Llosetense
Llosetense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portmany
Portmany
3/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Llosetense49%
×Draw25%
Portmany26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llosetense
1.57
Portmany
1.06

Llosetense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 112 away

creates per match

Llosetense
1.41
Portmany
0.99

allows per match

Llosetense
1.14
Portmany
1.73

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par
Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Portmany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw
74%
Llosetense or Portmany
75%
Draw or Portmany
51%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+
25%
Portmany wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals
79%
Llosetense 2+ goals
46%
Llosetense 3+ goals
21%
Portmany 1+ goals
65%
Portmany 2+ goals
29%
Portmany 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)
66%
Portmany (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Portmany attack 0.99 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Llosetense scores more
49%
level
25%
Portmany scores more
26%

Llosetense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llosetense vs Portmany

Llosetense beat Portmany 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 7, 2026.