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Llosetense vs Poblense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Llosetense
Llosetense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Poblense
Poblense
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Llosetense29%
×Draw27%
Poblense44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llosetense
1.06
Poblense
1.38

Poblense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 83 away

creates per match

Llosetense
1.41
Poblense
1.63

allows per match

Llosetense
1.14
Poblense
0.72

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par
Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Poblense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw
56%
Llosetense or Poblense
73%
Draw or Poblense
71%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+
11%
Poblense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals
65%
Llosetense 2+ goals
29%
Llosetense 3+ goals
9%
Poblense 1+ goals
75%
Poblense 2+ goals
40%
Poblense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)
40%
Poblense (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.06

Poblense attack 1.63 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Llosetense scores more
29%
level
27%
Poblense scores more
44%

Poblense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llosetense vs Poblense

Poblense beat Llosetense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Es Puig in Mallorca.