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Llosetense vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Llosetense
Llosetense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
3/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 27Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Llosetense37%
×Draw29%
Penya Independent34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llosetense
1.16
Penya Independent
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Llosetense
1.41
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Llosetense
1.14
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw
66%
Llosetense or Penya Independent
71%
Draw or Penya Independent
63%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+
15%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals
69%
Llosetense 2+ goals
32%
Llosetense 3+ goals
11%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
67%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
30%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)
52%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Llosetense scores more
37%
level
29%
Penya Independent scores more
34%

Llosetense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llosetense vs Penya Independent

Llosetense beat Penya Independent 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Es Puig in Mallorca.