Llosetense 4–0 Migjorn: Result & Stats

Llosetense

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Migjorn

11/30/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 13Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Llosetense69%

×Draw19%

Migjorn12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlosetenseExpected goals in this matchMigjorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.71

Llosetense

2.06

Migjorn

0.71

Llosetense creates 190% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

0.29

1.14

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Llosetense

1.41

Migjorn

0.29

allows per match

Llosetense

1.14

Migjorn

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par

Migjorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Migjorn →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw

88%

Llosetense or Migjorn

81%

Draw or Migjorn

31%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+

44%

Migjorn wins by 2+

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals

87%

Llosetense 2+ goals

61%

Llosetense 3+ goals

34%

Migjorn 1+ goals

51%

Migjorn 2+ goals

16%

Migjorn 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)

85%

Migjorn (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Migjorn away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Migjorn defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.06

Migjorn attack 0.29 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Llosetense scores more

69%

level

19%

Migjorn scores more

12%

Llosetense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff