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Llosetense vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Llosetense
Llosetense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Llosetense64%
×Draw21%
Inter Manacor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llosetense
2.00
Inter Manacor
0.86

Llosetense creates 133% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Llosetense
1.41
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

Llosetense
1.14
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw
85%
Llosetense or Inter Manacor
79%
Draw or Inter Manacor
36%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+
39%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals
86%
Llosetense 2+ goals
59%
Llosetense 3+ goals
32%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
58%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
21%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)
81%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.00

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Llosetense scores more
64%
level
21%
Inter Manacor scores more
15%

Llosetense at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Llosetense 1–0 Inter Manacor

Llosetense beat Inter Manacor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Es Puig in Mallorca.