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Llerenense vs Plasencia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Llerenense
Llerenense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Plasencia
Plasencia
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Llerenense49%
×Draw27%
Plasencia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llerenense
1.39
Plasencia
0.89

Llerenense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 57 away

creates per match

Llerenense
1.38
Plasencia
0.86

allows per match

Llerenense
0.91
Plasencia
1.40

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par
Plasencia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Plasencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw
76%
Llerenense or Plasencia
73%
Draw or Plasencia
51%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+
23%
Plasencia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals
75%
Llerenense 2+ goals
40%
Llerenense 3+ goals
16%
Plasencia 1+ goals
59%
Plasencia 2+ goals
22%
Plasencia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)
67%
Plasencia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Plasencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Plasencia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Plasencia attack 0.86 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Llerenense scores more
49%
level
27%
Plasencia scores more
24%

Llerenense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Llerenense 1–1 Plasencia

Llerenense and Plasencia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Robina in Llerena.