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Llerenense vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Llerenense
Llerenense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 16Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Llerenense52%
×Draw26%
Fuente Cantos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llerenense
1.52
Fuente Cantos
0.90

Llerenense creates 69% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 61 away

creates per match

Llerenense
1.38
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Llerenense
0.91
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw
78%
Llerenense or Fuente Cantos
74%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
48%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+
27%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals
78%
Llerenense 2+ goals
45%
Llerenense 3+ goals
20%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
59%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
23%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)
70%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Llerenense scores more
52%
level
26%
Fuente Cantos scores more
22%

Llerenense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llerenense 1 – 0 Fuente Cantos

Llerenense beat Fuente Cantos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Robina in Llerena.