Llerenense 0–1 Extremadura UD II: Result & Stats

Llerenense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Extremadura UD II

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 20Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llerenense46%

×Draw28%

Extremadura UD II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlerenenseExpected goals in this matchExtremadura UD II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.92

Llerenense

1.31

Extremadura UD II

0.92

Llerenense creates 42% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

1.38

creates per match

0.93

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Llerenense

1.38

Extremadura UD II

0.93

allows per match

Llerenense

0.91

Extremadura UD II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Extremadura UD II →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw

74%

Llerenense or Extremadura UD II

72%

Draw or Extremadura UD II

54%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+

21%

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals

73%

Llerenense 2+ goals

38%

Llerenense 3+ goals

14%

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals

60%

Extremadura UD II 2+ goals

23%

Extremadura UD II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)

63%

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Llerenense scores more

46%

level

28%

Extremadura UD II scores more

26%

Llerenense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llerenense vs Extremadura UD II

Extremadura UD II beat Llerenense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Robina in Llerena.

Llerenense vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Llerenense vs Extremadura UD II