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Llerenense vs Badajoz II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Llerenense
Llerenense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz II
Badajoz II
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 19Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Llerenense46%
×Draw29%
Badajoz II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llerenense
1.25
Badajoz II
0.82

Llerenense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

creates per match

Llerenense
1.38
Badajoz II
0.73

allows per match

Llerenense
0.91
Badajoz II
1.13

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par
Badajoz II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Badajoz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw
76%
Llerenense or Badajoz II
71%
Draw or Badajoz II
54%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+
21%
Badajoz II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals
71%
Llerenense 2+ goals
36%
Llerenense 3+ goals
13%
Badajoz II 1+ goals
56%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
20%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)
66%
Badajoz II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Badajoz II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Badajoz II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Badajoz II attack 0.73 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Llerenense scores more
46%
level
29%
Badajoz II scores more
24%

Llerenense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llerenense vs Badajoz II

Llerenense beat Badajoz II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Robina in Llerena.