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Lleida Esportiu vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Lleida Esportiu
Lleida Esportiu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
10/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Camp d'Esports de Lleida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lleida Esportiu28%
×Draw29%
L'Hospitalet43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lleida Esportiu
0.96
L'Hospitalet
1.25

L'Hospitalet creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Lleida Esportiu
0.65
L'Hospitalet
1.51

allows per match

Lleida Esportiu
1.00
L'Hospitalet
1.27

finishing

Lleida Esportiu+0.00on par
L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lleida Esportiu ↓

L'Hospitalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lleida Esportiu or draw
57%
Lleida Esportiu or L'Hospitalet
71%
Draw or L'Hospitalet
72%

Winning margin

Lleida Esportiu wins by 2+
10%
L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lleida Esportiu 1+ goals
62%
Lleida Esportiu 2+ goals
25%
Lleida Esportiu 3+ goals
7%
L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
71%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
36%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lleida Esportiu (draw refunded)
40%
L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lleida Esportiu at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lleida Esportiu attack 0.65 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Lleida Esportiu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lleida Esportiu scores more
28%
level
29%
L'Hospitalet scores more
43%

L'Hospitalet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Lleida Esportiu 0–1 L'Hospitalet

L'Hospitalet beat Lleida Esportiu 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Camp d'Esports de Lleida in Lleida.