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Llapi vs Malisheva — Cup 2019

Llapi
Llapiadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Malisheva
Malisheva
3/5/2026CupCup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Llapi30%
×Draw22%
Malisheva48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llapi
1.49
Malisheva
1.93

Malisheva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Llapi
2.55
Malisheva
2.86

allows per match

Llapi
1.00
Malisheva
0.43

finishing

Llapi+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llapi ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Llapi or draw
52%
Llapi or Malisheva
78%
Draw or Malisheva
70%

Winning margin

Llapi wins by 2+
14%
Malisheva wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Llapi 1+ goals
77%
Llapi 2+ goals
44%
Llapi 3+ goals
19%
Malisheva 1+ goals
85%
Malisheva 2+ goals
57%
Malisheva 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Llapi (draw refunded)
38%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llapi at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Malisheva away — creates 2.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llapi attack 2.55 + Malisheva defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Malisheva attack 2.86 + Llapi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Llapi scores more
30%
level
22%
Malisheva scores more
48%

Malisheva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Llapi 1–1 Malisheva

Llapi and Malisheva drew 1-1 in Cup on March 5, 2026.