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Llapi vs Buducnost Podgorica — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Llapi
Llapi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
7/14/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Llapi54%
×Draw23%
Buducnost Podgorica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llapi
1.77
Buducnost Podgorica
1.05

Llapi creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Llapi
1.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.43

allows per match

Llapi
1.67
Buducnost Podgorica
1.86

finishing

Llapi+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llapi ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llapi or draw
78%
Llapi or Buducnost Podgorica
77%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
46%

Winning margin

Llapi wins by 2+
30%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llapi 1+ goals
83%
Llapi 2+ goals
53%
Llapi 3+ goals
26%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
65%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
28%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Llapi (draw refunded)
71%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llapi at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llapi attack 1.67 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Buducnost Podgorica attack 0.43 + Llapi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Llapi scores more
54%
level
23%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
22%

Llapi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Llapi 2–2 Buducnost Podgorica

Llapi and Buducnost Podgorica drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.