Llapi 1–0 Besa Pejë: Result & Stats | Superliga

Llapi

FT

1 – 0

Besa Pejë

E. Prenci 59'

5/9/2021

Superliga · Round 34Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Llapi63%

×Draw20%

Besa Pejë16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlapiExpected goals in this matchBesa Pejë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.94

Llapi

2.08

Besa Pejë

0.94

Llapi creates 121% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Llapi

1.50

Besa Pejë

0.67

allows per match

Llapi

1.20

Besa Pejë

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llapi+0.00on par

Besa Pejë+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llapi ↓

Besa Pejë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Llapi or draw

84%

Llapi or Besa Pejë

80%

Draw or Besa Pejë

37%

Winning margin

Llapi wins by 2+

39%

Besa Pejë wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Llapi 1+ goals

87%

Llapi 2+ goals

61%

Llapi 3+ goals

34%

Besa Pejë 1+ goals

61%

Besa Pejë 2+ goals

24%

Besa Pejë 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Llapi (draw refunded)

80%

Besa Pejë (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llapi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Besa Pejë away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llapi attack 1.50 + Besa Pejë defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Besa Pejë attack 0.67 + Llapi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Llapi scores more

63%

level

20%

Besa Pejë scores more

16%

Llapi at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

E. Prenci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff