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Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
C. Gauci 48'
L. Gullick 89', 37'
T. McLean 62'
K. Evans 54' (OG)
3/28/2026League #111League #111 · South - 28Windmill Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Llantwit Major32%
×Draw22%
Caerau (Ely)46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llantwit Major
1.61
Caerau (Ely)
1.97

Caerau (Ely) creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Llantwit Major
1.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Llantwit Major
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Llantwit Major+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llantwit Major ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Llantwit Major or draw
54%
Llantwit Major or Caerau (Ely)
78%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
68%

Winning margin

Llantwit Major wins by 2+
15%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Llantwit Major 1+ goals
80%
Llantwit Major 2+ goals
48%
Llantwit Major 3+ goals
22%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
86%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
58%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Llantwit Major (draw refunded)
41%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llantwit Major at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llantwit Major attack 1.33 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Llantwit Major defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Llantwit Major scores more
32%
level
22%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
46%

Caerau (Ely) at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caerau (Ely) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
L. Gullick
48'
C. Gauci
54'
K. EvansOwn goal
62'
T. McLean
89'
L. Gullick

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llantwit Major 1 – 4 Caerau (Ely)

Caerau (Ely) beat Llantwit Major 4-1 in League #111 on March 28, 2026.

Goals: L. Gullick (37', 89'), C. Gauci (48'), K. Evans (54' o.g.), T. McLean (62').

The match was played at Windmill Ground in Llantwit Major.