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Llanes vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanes
Llanes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
San Martín
San Martín
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Llanes45%
×Draw26%
San Martín29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanes
1.50
San Martín
1.14

Llanes creates 32% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 78 away

creates per match

Llanes
1.44
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Llanes
1.15
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Llanes+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanes ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llanes or draw
71%
Llanes or San Martín
74%
Draw or San Martín
55%

Winning margin

Llanes wins by 2+
23%
San Martín wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Llanes 1+ goals
78%
Llanes 2+ goals
44%
Llanes 3+ goals
19%
San Martín 1+ goals
68%
San Martín 2+ goals
32%
San Martín 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llanes (draw refunded)
61%
San Martín (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanes at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 94 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanes attack 1.44 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Martín attack 1.12 + Llanes defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Llanes scores more
45%
level
26%
San Martín scores more
29%

Llanes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Llanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanes vs San Martín

Llanes and San Martín drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Llanes.