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Llanes vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanes
Llanes
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
12/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Llanes27%
×Draw26%
Real Oviedo II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanes
1.09
Real Oviedo II
1.52

Real Oviedo II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 36 away

creates per match

Llanes
1.44
Real Oviedo II
1.89

allows per match

Llanes
1.15
Real Oviedo II
0.75

finishing

Llanes+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanes ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llanes or draw
53%
Llanes or Real Oviedo II
74%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
73%

Winning margin

Llanes wins by 2+
10%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Llanes 1+ goals
66%
Llanes 2+ goals
30%
Llanes 3+ goals
10%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
78%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
45%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Llanes (draw refunded)
37%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanes at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 94 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanes attack 1.44 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Llanes defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Llanes scores more
27%
level
26%
Real Oviedo II scores more
47%

Real Oviedo II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanes vs Real Oviedo II

Real Oviedo II beat Llanes 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Llanes.