Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Llanes vs Langreo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanes
Llanes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Langreo II
Langreo II
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llanes54%
×Draw23%
Langreo II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanes
1.80
Langreo II
1.07

Llanes creates 68% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 19 away

creates per match

Llanes
1.44
Langreo II
1.00

allows per match

Llanes
1.15
Langreo II
2.16

finishing

Llanes+0.00on par
Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanes ↓

Langreo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Llanes or draw
78%
Llanes or Langreo II
77%
Draw or Langreo II
46%

Winning margin

Llanes wins by 2+
31%
Langreo II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llanes 1+ goals
83%
Llanes 2+ goals
54%
Llanes 3+ goals
27%
Langreo II 1+ goals
66%
Langreo II 2+ goals
29%
Langreo II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Llanes (draw refunded)
71%
Langreo II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanes at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 94 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanes attack 1.44 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.80

Langreo II attack 1.00 + Llanes defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Llanes scores more
54%
level
23%
Langreo II scores more
22%

Llanes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Llanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanes vs Langreo II

Llanes beat Langreo II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Llanes.