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Llanes vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanes
Llanes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Llanes51%
×Draw25%
Avilés Stadium24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanes
1.59
Avilés Stadium
1.00

Llanes creates 59% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 80 away

creates per match

Llanes
1.44
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Llanes
1.15
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Llanes+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanes ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llanes or draw
76%
Llanes or Avilés Stadium
75%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
49%

Winning margin

Llanes wins by 2+
27%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Llanes 1+ goals
80%
Llanes 2+ goals
47%
Llanes 3+ goals
21%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
63%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
26%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llanes (draw refunded)
68%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanes at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 94 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanes attack 1.44 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Llanes defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Llanes scores more
51%
level
25%
Avilés Stadium scores more
24%

Llanes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Llanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanes 2–2 Avilés Stadium

Llanes and Avilés Stadium drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Llanes.