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Llaneros W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

Llaneros W
Llaneros W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
4/13/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 12Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Llaneros W57%
×Draw22%
Real San Andrés W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros W
1.98
Real San Andrés W
1.14

Llaneros W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 32 away

creates per match

Llaneros W
1.24
Real San Andrés W
0.75

allows per match

Llaneros W
1.52
Real San Andrés W
2.72

finishing

Llaneros W+0.00on par
Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros W ↓

Real San Andrés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Llaneros W or draw
78%
Llaneros W or Real San Andrés W
78%
Draw or Real San Andrés W
43%

Winning margin

Llaneros W wins by 2+
33%
Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llaneros W 1+ goals
86%
Llaneros W 2+ goals
59%
Llaneros W 3+ goals
31%
Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
68%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
32%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llaneros W (draw refunded)
72%
Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros W attack 1.24 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Llaneros W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Llaneros W scores more
57%
level
22%
Real San Andrés W scores more
22%

Llaneros W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Llaneros W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros W vs Real San Andrés W

Llaneros W beat Real San Andrés W 6-1 in Liga Femenina on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.