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Llaneros W vs Junior W — Liga Femenina 2020

Llaneros W
Llaneros W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Junior W
Junior W
4/27/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 9Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros W43%
×Draw26%
Junior W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros W
1.44
Junior W
1.16

Llaneros W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

creates per match

Llaneros W
1.24
Junior W
0.79

allows per match

Llaneros W
1.52
Junior W
1.63

finishing

Llaneros W+0.00on par
Junior W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros W ↓

Junior W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros W or draw
70%
Llaneros W or Junior W
74%
Draw or Junior W
57%

Winning margin

Llaneros W wins by 2+
21%
Junior W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Llaneros W 1+ goals
76%
Llaneros W 2+ goals
42%
Llaneros W 3+ goals
18%
Junior W 1+ goals
69%
Junior W 2+ goals
32%
Junior W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llaneros W (draw refunded)
59%
Junior W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Junior W away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros W attack 1.24 + Junior W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Junior W attack 0.79 + Llaneros W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Llaneros W scores more
43%
level
26%
Junior W scores more
30%

Llaneros W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Llaneros W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Llaneros W 3–0 Junior W

Llaneros W beat Junior W 3-0 in Liga Femenina on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas in Yopal.