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Llaneros W vs Boyacá Chicó W — Liga Femenina 2020

Llaneros W
Llaneros W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boyacá Chicó W
Boyacá Chicó W
3/6/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 5Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Llaneros W30%
×Draw30%
Boyacá Chicó W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros W
0.94
Boyacá Chicó W
1.14

Boyacá Chicó W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 8 away

creates per match

Llaneros W
1.24
Boyacá Chicó W
0.75

allows per match

Llaneros W
1.52
Boyacá Chicó W
0.63

finishing

Llaneros W+0.00on par
Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros W ↓

Boyacá Chicó W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros W or draw
60%
Llaneros W or Boyacá Chicó W
70%
Draw or Boyacá Chicó W
70%

Winning margin

Llaneros W wins by 2+
11%
Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Llaneros W 1+ goals
61%
Llaneros W 2+ goals
24%
Llaneros W 3+ goals
7%
Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals
68%
Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals
32%
Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llaneros W (draw refunded)
43%
Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Boyacá Chicó W away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros W attack 1.24 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.75 + Llaneros W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Llaneros W scores more
30%
level
30%
Boyacá Chicó W scores more
40%

Boyacá Chicó W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Boyacá Chicó W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Llaneros W 2–0 Boyacá Chicó W

Llaneros W beat Boyacá Chicó W 2-0 in Liga Femenina on March 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.