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Llaneros W vs Atlético Huila W — Liga Femenina 2020

Llaneros W
Llaneros W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Atlético Huila W
Atlético Huila W
3/9/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 5Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Llaneros W38%
×Draw27%
Atlético Huila W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros W
1.31
Atlético Huila W
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 16 away

creates per match

Llaneros W
1.24
Atlético Huila W
1.00

allows per match

Llaneros W
1.52
Atlético Huila W
1.38

finishing

Llaneros W+0.00on par
Atlético Huila W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros W ↓

Atlético Huila W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros W or draw
64%
Llaneros W or Atlético Huila W
73%
Draw or Atlético Huila W
62%

Winning margin

Llaneros W wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Huila W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Llaneros W 1+ goals
73%
Llaneros W 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros W 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Huila W 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Huila W 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Huila W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Llaneros W (draw refunded)
52%
Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Atlético Huila W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros W attack 1.24 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlético Huila W attack 1.00 + Llaneros W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros W scores more
38%
level
27%
Atlético Huila W scores more
36%

Llaneros W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros W vs Atlético Huila W

Llaneros W and Atlético Huila W drew 2-2 in Liga Femenina on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.