Llaneros 3–3 Real Soacha: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Real Soacha

3/24/2024

Primera B · Apertura - 9Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Llaneros45%

×Draw28%

Real Soacha27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchReal Soacha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.94

Llaneros

1.32

Real Soacha

0.94

Llaneros creates 40% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 56 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Llaneros

1.45

Real Soacha

1.00

allows per match

Llaneros

0.87

Real Soacha

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Real Soacha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

73%

Llaneros or Real Soacha

72%

Draw or Real Soacha

55%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

21%

Real Soacha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

73%

Llaneros 2+ goals

38%

Llaneros 3+ goals

15%

Real Soacha 1+ goals

61%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

24%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

63%

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Llaneros scores more

45%

level

28%

Real Soacha scores more

27%

Llaneros at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff