Llaneros 5–1 Real Cartagena: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real Cartagena

11/4/2024

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Llaneros49%

×Draw27%

Real Cartagena24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchReal Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Llaneros

1.40

Real Cartagena

0.90

Llaneros creates 56% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 162 away

1.45

creates per match

0.93

0.87

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Llaneros

1.45

Real Cartagena

0.93

allows per match

Llaneros

0.87

Real Cartagena

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Real Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

76%

Llaneros or Real Cartagena

73%

Draw or Real Cartagena

51%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

24%

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

75%

Llaneros 2+ goals

41%

Llaneros 3+ goals

17%

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

59%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

23%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

67%

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Llaneros scores more

49%

level

27%

Real Cartagena scores more

24%

Llaneros at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff