Llaneros 2–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera A

Llaneros

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jaguares

D. Martinez 70' (OG)

L. Miranda 6'

3/9/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Llaneros45%

×Draw30%

Jaguares26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.84

Llaneros

1.21

Jaguares

0.84

Llaneros creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.68

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Llaneros

1.06

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Llaneros

1.00

Jaguares

1.36

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.17scores less

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

74%

Llaneros or Jaguares

70%

Draw or Jaguares

55%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

20%

Jaguares wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

70%

Llaneros 2+ goals

34%

Llaneros 3+ goals

12%

Jaguares 1+ goals

57%

Jaguares 2+ goals

21%

Jaguares 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

64%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.06 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Llaneros defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Llaneros scores more

45%

level

30%

Jaguares scores more

26%

Llaneros at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Miranda

Llaneros · M

8.5

Match Events

6'

L. Miranda↳ Jhon Vasquez

35'

Leider RiascosGoal cancelled

39'

Carlos Ordóñez

42'

Luis Miranda

46'

J. Ramirez← K. Caicedo

46'

F. Mosquera← Y. Moreno

46'

Jopito← D. Rodriguez Urango

49'

Kahiser Lenis

58'

C. Cortes← J. Blanco

58'

Kelvin Osorio← L. Miranda

66'

Mauricio Castaño

70'

L. Marimon← Jhon Vasquez

70'

D. MartinezOwn goal

74'

J. Viveros← J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta

75'

Royscer Colpa

78'

J. Medranda← J. Escobar Salcedo

79'

Kelvin Osorio

85'

J. Mejia← K. Lenis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosJaguares

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots14

1.47Expected Goals (xG)1.02

2Corners7

19Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target4

7Off Target6

2Blocked4

7Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

256Total Passes259

191Accurate Passes192

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-1.13Goals Prevented-1.13

Discipline

19Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2