Llaneros 1–2 Internacional Palmira: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional Palmira

2/17/2024

Primera B · Apertura - 3Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Llaneros44%

×Draw28%

Internacional Palmira28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchInternacional Palmira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.01

Llaneros

1.34

Internacional Palmira

1.01

Llaneros creates 33% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 49 away

1.45

creates per match

1.16

0.87

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Llaneros

1.45

Internacional Palmira

1.16

allows per match

Llaneros

0.87

Internacional Palmira

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Internacional Palmira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

72%

Llaneros or Internacional Palmira

72%

Draw or Internacional Palmira

56%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

21%

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

74%

Llaneros 2+ goals

39%

Llaneros 3+ goals

15%

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

64%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

27%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Llaneros scores more

44%

level

28%

Internacional Palmira scores more

28%

Llaneros at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff