Llaneros 2–2 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

N. Ospina 90'

Jhon Vasquez 76' (pen)

D. Moreno 90'

B. Benitez 51' (OG)

2/20/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Llaneros38%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.99

Llaneros

1.09

Independiente Medellin

0.99

Llaneros creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.21

creates per match

1.04

0.95

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Llaneros

1.21

Independiente Medellin

1.04

allows per match

Llaneros

0.95

Independiente Medellin

0.97

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.21scores less

Independiente Medellin+0.46scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

68%

Llaneros or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

62%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

15%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

66%

Llaneros 2+ goals

30%

Llaneros 3+ goals

10%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

63%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

54%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 10 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.21 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Independiente Medellin attack 1.04 + Llaneros defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros scores more

38%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

32%

Llaneros at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Cortes

Llaneros · F

7.5

Match Events

36'

39'

39'

45'

51'

B. BenitezOwn goal

55'

E. Mena Perea← H. Palacios

55'

J. Ortiz← L. Piedrahita

60'

J. Medranda← J. Escobar Salcedo

60'

J. Blanco← C. Cortes

61'

Eder Chaux

61'

L. Miranda← B. Benitez

63'

J. Banguera← M. Balanta

64'

D. Moreno← A. Valdelamar

72'

Jhon VásquezPenalty confirmed

75'

Alexis Serna

76'

Kelvin Osorio← M. Sierra

76'

D. Mantilla← J. Pertuz

76'

Jhon VasquezPenalty

84'

J. Viveros← F. Fabra

85'

Francisco Meza

90'

D. Moreno↳ E. Mena Perea

90'

N. Ospina↳ J. Blanco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosIndependiente

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots6

2.49Expected Goals (xG)0.44

12Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots6

6On Target1

5Off Target2

3Blocked3

9Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

339Total Passes250

256Accurate Passes176

76%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.21Goals Prevented0.21

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1