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Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Llaneros
Llaneros
Preview
01:00
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
9/8/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Bello Horizonte
39%
Llaneros
model favours
39%30%31%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Llaneros39%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Cali31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.14
Deportivo Cali
0.99

Llaneros creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 38 away

creates per match

Llaneros
0.93
Deportivo Cali
0.95

allows per match

Llaneros
1.03
Deportivo Cali
1.34

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
69%
Llaneros or Deportivo Cali
70%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
68%
Llaneros 2+ goals
32%
Llaneros 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 0.93 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Deportivo Cali attack 0.95 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros scores more
39%
level
30%
Deportivo Cali scores more
31%

Llaneros at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Llaneros sit 19, Deportivo Cali 6 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Llaneros
Balanced
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
50%Possession50%
81%Pass accuracy80%
10.9Shots12.8
1.19xGBiggest gap0.96
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LlanerosDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

1
Llaneros
1
Draws
1
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 33%
1–13–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Llaneros
WWLWL
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali — Match Preview

Llaneros face Deportivo Cali on September 8, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Llaneros host Deportivo Cali at Estadio Bello Horizonte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.