Deportivo Cali 1–1 Llaneros: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Llaneros

M. Orozco 55'

Jhon Vasquez 60'

4/12/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Cali45%

×Draw29%

Llaneros26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.86

Deportivo Cali

1.25

Llaneros

0.86

Deportivo Cali creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.08

creates per match

0.90

0.82

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Llaneros

0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.82

Llaneros

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

74%

Deportivo Cali or Llaneros

71%

Draw or Llaneros

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

20%

Llaneros wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

13%

Llaneros 1+ goals

58%

Llaneros 2+ goals

21%

Llaneros 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

64%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Llaneros defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Llaneros attack 0.90 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

45%

level

29%

Llaneros scores more

26%

Deportivo Cali at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

M. Orozco

Deportivo Cali · M

8.0

Match Events

20'

Juan Loaiza

20'

H. H. Mena Posada← J. Pertuz

24'

32'

45+2'

55'

60'

Jhon Vasquez↳ K. Caicedo

64'

E. Reynoso← A. Hurtado

64'

A. Colorado← D. Giraldo

66'

Dennis Quintero

71'

L. Marimon← K. Caicedo

71'

K. Rincon← N. Ospina

76'

J. Martinez← F. Alvarez

81'

Y. Quintero← M. Orozco

86'

90+5'

90+3'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoLlaneros

Overview

69%Possession31%

22Total Shots7

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.67

6Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots7

3On Target5

12Off Target1

7Blocked2

13Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

471Total Passes211

364Accurate Passes131

77%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1