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Llaneros vs Depor FC — Primera B 2018

Llaneros
Llaneros
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Depor FC
Depor FC
11/1/2023Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Llaneros53%
×Draw26%
Depor FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.54
Depor FC
0.88

Llaneros creates 75% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 128 away

creates per match

Llaneros
1.45
Depor FC
0.88

allows per match

Llaneros
0.87
Depor FC
1.63

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Depor FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
78%
Llaneros or Depor FC
74%
Draw or Depor FC
47%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
27%
Depor FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
79%
Llaneros 2+ goals
45%
Llaneros 3+ goals
20%
Depor FC 1+ goals
59%
Depor FC 2+ goals
22%
Depor FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
71%
Depor FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Llaneros scores more
53%
level
26%
Depor FC scores more
22%

Llaneros at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros vs Depor FC

Llaneros beat Depor FC 1-0 in Primera B on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé in Villavicencio.