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Llaneros vs Cucuta — Primera A 2018

Llaneros
Llaneros
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cucuta
Cucuta
3/17/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Llaneros44%
×Draw28%
Cucuta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.32
Cucuta
0.99

Llaneros creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

creates per match

Llaneros
0.93
Cucuta
0.95

allows per match

Llaneros
1.03
Cucuta
1.72

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Cucuta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Cucuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
72%
Llaneros or Cucuta
72%
Draw or Cucuta
56%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
20%
Cucuta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
73%
Llaneros 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros 3+ goals
15%
Cucuta 1+ goals
63%
Cucuta 2+ goals
26%
Cucuta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
61%
Cucuta (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 0.93 + Cucuta defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cucuta attack 0.95 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Llaneros scores more
44%
level
28%
Cucuta scores more
28%

Llaneros at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros vs Cucuta

Llaneros and Cucuta drew 2-2 in Primera A on March 17, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.