Llaneros 2–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bucaramanga

B. Uruena 72'

C. Sierra 32'

A. Penaranda 90' (pen)

5/3/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Llaneros42%

×Draw30%

Bucaramanga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.89

Llaneros

1.17

Bucaramanga

0.89

Llaneros creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.15

creates per match

0.89

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Llaneros

1.15

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Llaneros

0.89

Bucaramanga

1.19

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.24scores less

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

72%

Llaneros or Bucaramanga

70%

Draw or Bucaramanga

58%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

18%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

69%

Llaneros 2+ goals

33%

Llaneros 3+ goals

11%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

59%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

22%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

60%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.89 · 11 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.15 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Llaneros defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Llaneros scores more

42%

level

30%

Bucaramanga scores more

28%

Llaneros at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Sierra

Llaneros · M

7.9

Match Events

32'

C. Sierra↳ M. Rangel

54'

A. Penaranda← S. Cardenas

57'

B. Duarte← A. Zarate

59'

M. Sierra← A. Lopez

69'

J. Garcia← A. Artunduaga

69'

J. Blanco← A. Ponce

69'

J. Mosquera← A. Andrade

70'

K. Valencia← C. Sierra

70'

F. Espinal← B. Chury

71'

D. Mosquera← M. Rangel

72'

B. Uruena↳ J. Lasso

74'

Kevin ArmestoGoal confirmed

76'

Eyder Restrepo

81'

M. Medina← E. Restrepo

90'

A. PenarandaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosBucaramanga

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots12

4Corners6

14Fouls4

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

0Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

352Total Passes349

290Accurate Passes292

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4