Llaneros 0–1 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas Doradas

9/20/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Llaneros38%

×Draw30%

Águilas Doradas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.00

Llaneros

1.11

Águilas Doradas

1.00

Llaneros creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 170 away

0.93

creates per match

0.97

1.03

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Llaneros

0.93

Águilas Doradas

0.97

allows per match

Llaneros

1.03

Águilas Doradas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

68%

Llaneros or Águilas Doradas

70%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

62%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

15%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

67%

Llaneros 2+ goals

30%

Llaneros 3+ goals

10%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

63%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

26%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

54%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 0.93 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros scores more

38%

level

30%

Águilas Doradas scores more

32%

Llaneros at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff