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Llaneros de Guanare vs ULA FC — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 3
ULA FC
ULA FC
8/12/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 4Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare39%
×Draw25%
ULA FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.44
ULA FC
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 53 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
ULA FC
1.23

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
ULA FC
1.55

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
ULA FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

ULA FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
65%
Llaneros de Guanare or ULA FC
75%
Draw or ULA FC
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
19%
ULA FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
76%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
42%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
18%
ULA FC 1+ goals
74%
ULA FC 2+ goals
39%
ULA FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
53%
ULA FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

ULA FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + ULA FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

ULA FC attack 1.23 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
39%
level
25%
ULA FC scores more
35%

Llaneros de Guanare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Llaneros de Guanare 1–3 ULA FC

ULA FC beat Llaneros de Guanare 3-1 in Segunda División on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).