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Llaneros de Guanare vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
8/4/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare39%
×Draw25%
Monagas SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.43
Monagas SC
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 134 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
65%
Llaneros de Guanare or Monagas SC
75%
Draw or Monagas SC
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
18%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
76%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
42%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
17%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
74%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
39%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
52%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
39%
level
25%
Monagas SC scores more
35%

Llaneros de Guanare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Llaneros de Guanare 0–1 Monagas SC

Monagas SC beat Llaneros de Guanare 1-0 in Primera División on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).