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Llaneros de Guanare vs Gran Valencia — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
Canc
20:00
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
5/24/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare43%
×Draw26%
Gran Valencia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.49
Gran Valencia
1.22

Llaneros de Guanare creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Gran Valencia
0.91

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Gran Valencia
1.61

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
69%
Llaneros de Guanare or Gran Valencia
74%
Draw or Gran Valencia
57%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
21%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
77%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
44%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
19%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
70%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
34%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
58%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Gran Valencia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Gran Valencia attack 0.91 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
43%
level
26%
Gran Valencia scores more
31%

Llaneros de Guanare at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llaneros de Guanare face Gran Valencia (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Llaneros de Guanare hosting Gran Valencia. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.