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Gran Valencia vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
CANC
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
10/14/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gran Valencia44%
×Draw24%
Llaneros de Guanare32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Valencia
1.66
Llaneros de Guanare
1.37

Gran Valencia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gran Valencia
0.81
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Gran Valencia
1.29
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Gran Valencia+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Valencia ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gran Valencia or draw
68%
Gran Valencia or Llaneros de Guanare
76%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
56%

Winning margin

Gran Valencia wins by 2+
23%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gran Valencia 1+ goals
81%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
49%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
23%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
75%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
40%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
58%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Valencia at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Valencia attack 0.81 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Gran Valencia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gran Valencia scores more
44%
level
24%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
32%

Gran Valencia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gran Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gran Valencia face Llaneros de Guanare (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Gran Valencia hosting Llaneros de Guanare. Match starts October 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.