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Llaneros de Guanare vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
CANC
00:00
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
2/2/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare35%
×Draw26%
Deportivo La Guaira39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.29
Deportivo La Guaira
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 148 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Deportivo La Guaira
1.22

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Deportivo La Guaira
1.20

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
61%
Llaneros de Guanare or Deportivo La Guaira
74%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
65%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
37%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
47%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
35%
level
26%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
39%

Deportivo La Guaira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llaneros de Guanare face Deportivo La Guaira (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Llaneros de Guanare hosting Deportivo La Guaira. Match starts February 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Llaneros de Guanare host Deportivo La Guaira at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.