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Llaneros de Guanare vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 1
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
4/19/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare48%
×Draw24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.69
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.25

Llaneros de Guanare creates 35% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 44 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
72%
Llaneros de Guanare or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
76%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
52%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
82%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
50%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
48%
level
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
28%

Llaneros de Guanare at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Llaneros de Guanare and Deportivo JBL del Zulia drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).