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Llaneros de Guanare vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
CANC
00:00
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
8/14/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare46%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Anzoategui30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.59
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.23

Llaneros de Guanare creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
70%
Llaneros de Guanare or Deportivo Anzoategui
75%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
54%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
80%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
47%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
46%
level
25%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
30%

Llaneros de Guanare at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Llaneros de Guanare host Deportivo Anzoategui

August 14, 2019: Llaneros de Guanare take on Deportivo Anzoategui in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Llaneros de Guanare host Deportivo Anzoategui at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.