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Llaneros de Guanare vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 2
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarezadvanced
12/8/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship - Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare38%
×Draw24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.49
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 37 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
62%
Llaneros de Guanare or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
76%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
62%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
18%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
77%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
44%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
77%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
43%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
50%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
38%
level
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
38%

Llaneros de Guanare at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Llaneros de Guanare 1–2 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Llaneros de Guanare 2-1 in Segunda División on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa in Mérida.