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Llaneros de Guanare vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
11/10/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare32%
×Draw26%
Caracas FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.19
Caracas FC
1.38

Caracas FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 146 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Caracas FC
1.22

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Caracas FC
1.00

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
59%
Llaneros de Guanare or Caracas FC
74%
Draw or Caracas FC
68%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
13%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
70%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
33%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
12%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
75%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
40%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
44%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
32%
level
26%
Caracas FC scores more
41%

Caracas FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Caracas FC

Llaneros de Guanare and Caracas FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).