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Llaneros de Guanare vs Carabobo FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
3/10/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare35%
×Draw27%
Carabobo FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.23
Carabobo FC
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 145 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Carabobo FC
1.09

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Carabobo FC
1.09

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
61%
Llaneros de Guanare or Carabobo FC
73%
Draw or Carabobo FC
65%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
15%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
71%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
35%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
13%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
73%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
38%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
47%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Carabobo FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Carabobo FC attack 1.09 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
35%
level
27%
Carabobo FC scores more
39%

Carabobo FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llaneros de Guanare 1 – 2 Carabobo FC

Carabobo FC beat Llaneros de Guanare 2-1 in Primera División on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).