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Llaneros de Guanare vs Atletico el Vigia FC — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 1
Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
4/15/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare44%
×Draw25%
Atletico el Vigia FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.52
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.23

Llaneros de Guanare creates 24% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 104 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.97

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.72

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
69%
Llaneros de Guanare or Atletico el Vigia FC
75%
Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC
56%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
22%
Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
78%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
45%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
20%
Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
71%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
35%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
44%
level
25%
Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
31%

Llaneros de Guanare at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Llaneros de Guanare 1–1 Atletico el Vigia FC

Llaneros de Guanare and Atletico el Vigia FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).