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Atletico el Vigia FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
7/17/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Ramón Gato Hernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Atletico el Vigia FC48%
×Draw26%
Llaneros de Guanare26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.52
Llaneros de Guanare
1.06

Atletico el Vigia FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 43 away

creates per match

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.50
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.20
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico el Vigia FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico el Vigia FC or draw
74%
Atletico el Vigia FC or Llaneros de Guanare
74%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
52%

Winning margin

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
24%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
78%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
45%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
20%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
65%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
29%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
64%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico el Vigia FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 1.50 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
26%

Atletico el Vigia FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico el Vigia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico el Vigia FC vs Llaneros de Guanare

Atletico el Vigia FC beat Llaneros de Guanare 3-0 in Segunda División on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Gato Hernández in El Vigía.