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Llanera vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Luarca
Luarca
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Llanera66%
×Draw20%
Luarca14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
2.00
Luarca
0.78

Llanera creates 156% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Luarca
0.75

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Luarca
1.73

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Luarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
86%
Llanera or Luarca
80%
Draw or Luarca
34%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
41%
Luarca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
86%
Llanera 2+ goals
59%
Llanera 3+ goals
32%
Luarca 1+ goals
54%
Luarca 2+ goals
18%
Luarca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
83%
Luarca (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.00

Luarca attack 0.75 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Llanera scores more
66%
level
20%
Luarca scores more
14%

Llanera at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanera vs Luarca

Llanera beat Luarca 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.