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Llanera vs Lealtad — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Lealtad
Lealtad
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera47%
×Draw26%
Lealtad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
1.53
Lealtad
1.10

Llanera creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 82 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Lealtad
1.41

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Lealtad
0.79

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Lealtad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
73%
Llanera or Lealtad
74%
Draw or Lealtad
53%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
24%
Lealtad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
78%
Llanera 2+ goals
45%
Llanera 3+ goals
20%
Lealtad 1+ goals
67%
Lealtad 2+ goals
30%
Lealtad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
63%
Lealtad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Llanera scores more
47%
level
26%
Lealtad scores more
27%

Llanera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanera vs Lealtad

Llanera beat Lealtad 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.