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Llanera vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera63%
×Draw21%
Gijón Industrial16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
1.98
Gijón Industrial
0.88

Llanera creates 125% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 80 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
84%
Llanera or Gijón Industrial
79%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
37%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
38%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
86%
Llanera 2+ goals
59%
Llanera 3+ goals
31%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
59%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
22%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
80%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Llanera scores more
63%
level
21%
Gijón Industrial scores more
16%

Llanera at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanera vs Gijón Industrial

Llanera beat Gijón Industrial 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.